Governments are making numerous and continuous efforts to combat climate change and reduce carbon emissions. There was a temporary decrease in carbon emissions in the 2020 pandemic lockdown. However, we have witnessed a tremendous increase in the same since then. This global energy outlook 2024 looks at how things have improved in the 1st half of the year. Moreover, how and what better improvements or drawbacks will be there by 2050?
Global Energy Outlook 2024: Recent Developments and Emerging Trends
To understand the speed and shape of energy transition to 2050, there are 2 scenarios to explore. Net Zero is in line with Paris’s consistent IPCC
- Current Trajectory – The current pathway taken by the global energy system. It focuses on climate policies already enforced and global aims and pledges for future decarbonization. It also covers the challenges associated with meeting these aims.
- Net Zero – It explores changes in various elements of an energy system to reduce carbon emissions. It is like a what-if scenario highlighting which element could change and how if the world acts collectively for CO2e to fall by 9%% by 2050.
This approach also embodies changes in societal behaviors and preferences to support energy efficiency and the adoption of low-carbon energy. The speed and extent of decarbonization in Net Zero is aligned with a range of IPCC scenarios consistent with meeting the Paris climate goals. By comparing the cumulative carbon emissions in both scenarios from 2015 to 2050 with the ranges of corresponding carbon trajectories, it is possible to make an indirect inference.
Energy Demand
It is majorly due to the increasing prosperity in developing economies.
Growth in Energy Demand
The demand for energy is increasing as the young economies are getting better off; however, this has been balanced by improvements in energy efficiency. The speed of improvement in energy efficiency will determine the rate of future increase in energy efficiency.
- Annual GDP growth average – 2.4%
- It is slower than the average of almost 3.5% per year as seen in the previous 25 years.
Causes – Slow population growth and weak improvements in GDP per capita.
With the world economy doubling by 2050 the main reason will be increasing prosperity. It which accounts for 70% of the increase in global activity.
Annual gains in energy efficiency average – 2.1% (Current Trajectory) and 3.4% (Net Zero).
Causes – Increasing shift towards solar and wind power generation. It reduces the energy losses associated, speeds up decarbonizing the energy system, and enhances energy security.
In developing economies, demand grows over the first half and after that, it depends majorly on the pace of decarbonization. The growth continues in Current Trajectory by 45%. Whereas, in Net Zero, the outlook shows an increase in early 2030s but by 2050 it will be around 10% below the 2022 levels.
Energy Efficiency Demand in Developed vs Developing Economies
- Developed Economies – Growth in energy consumption reflects greater gains in energy efficiency and slower economic growth. In past 20 years, a decline in energy demand has been witnessed between 20-40% over the outlook in Net Zero and Current Trajectory.
- Developing Economies – Slower economic growth paired with faster energy efficiency means a weaker global primary energy demand than in the past. As per the outlook in Net Zero, the demand actually falls.
In past 25 years, the average energy annual rate was 1.8%, out of which: Current Trajectory growth – 0.2% and Net Zero average annual decline – 1.1%
Increase in Renewables Decarbonizes Energy Demand
Wind, solar, geothermal, and bioenergy are the fastest-growing primary energy in the renewable energy sector.
- Current Trajectory: In the mid-2030s, primary energy demand in the Current Trajectory increases before plateauing as increases in energy consumption in emerging economies continue.
- Net Zero: In the middle of the current decade, energy demand peaks at Net Zero before declining as efforts to decarbonize the energy sector increase.
| Parameters | Current Trajectory | Net Zero |
| Energy Demand (2050) | 5% more than 2022 levels | 25% less than 2022 levels |
| Renewable energy | Double than 2022 | More than 3-fold |
| Coal Consumption | Between 35-85% | Between 35-85% |
| Oil Demand (2050) | One-third decrease from 2022 to a quarter | More than 10% decrease |
Declining Road Transport Drives Oil Demand Fall
Oil has a major role in the global energy system over the first half as the world consumed between 100-80 Mb/d oil in 2035 in Current Trajectory and Net Zero respectively.
Causes in Decrease – Adoption of fuel alternatives, less use of diesel generators, fuel-efficient vehicles, use of fuel substitutes in off-road industrial vehicles.
| Parameters | Current Trajectory | Net Zero |
| Oil Consumption (2050) | Around 75 Mb/d | Decrease between 25-30 Mb/d (70% less than 2022 levels) |
| Use in Feedstocks | 25 Mb/d in the 2040 |
Electricity Replaced Oil as the Main Energy for Road Transport
Internal combustion engine (ICE) light vehicles stayed the same during the 1st half. The decrease in demand in developed countries is balanced by an increased demand in developing countries.
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In 2022, the global light-duty vehicle increased from 1.5 billion to around 2 billion vehicles in 2035 and then to 2.5 billion in 2050. The global fleet of medium and heavy-duty (MHD) trucks increased from about 65 million in 2022 to around 110 million by 2050 in the two scenarios.
Causes – Introduction of more light vehicles and rising prosperity leading to car ownership.
| Parameters | Current Trajectory | Net Zero |
| ICE vehicles Demand | 10% less than 2022 | 75% less |
| Oil and oil-based products Demands (2050) | From 30 Mb/d in 2022 to 16 and four Mb/d due to ICE vehicles from 13 Mb/d in 2022 to 7 Mb/d due to MHD trucks | fall by four Mb/d due to ICE vehicles. Fall to 2 Mb/d due to MHD trucks |
| MHD trucks demand (2050) | fall from more than 90% in 2022 to 60% | 25% reduction |
Decarbonization of Marine and Aviation Transport
A combination of hydrogen-derived fuels and biofuels is decreasing carbonization from air and water transport. All SAF is derived from bio-feedstocks and by 2035 this low-carbon fuel will account for 5-10% and close to 20% by 2050 of total aviation fuel. The growing role of SAF is estimated by an increase in production capacity between 15 and 30 world-scale facilities coming online every year from 2030 to 2040.
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Causes – Increased use of liquid sustainable aviation fuel (SAF).
| Parameters | Current Trajectory | Net Zero |
| Air transport demand (2025-2050) | Will increase between 75% | 40% increase |
| Energy Demand | 35% growth between 2025-2050. | 10% increase |
| Water transport & trade | Increase by 70% | 30% increase |
| Energy Demand | Unchanged | 20% decrease with hydrogen-based fuels 40% and biofuels by 30% share. |
Power Sector
The increased use of electricity in energy systems is more evident in all sectors. There is a significant growth in energy demand as economies are emerging and developing. In developed economies, electricity consumption increases at an annual rate of 1.5%, which is 3 times faster than the past 20 years. Here, India is notably mentioned as it will overtake the EU as the 3rd largest power market globally in 2035.
Causes – Increasing use of electricity and growing demand from data centers for AI.
Growth in Electricity Demand
The biggest growth is seen in the transport sector, especially road transport. It is estimated that there will be a considerable decrease in electrification in transportation by 2050.
| Parameters | Current Trajectory | Net Zero |
| Final Electricity Demand (2050) | 75% increase | 90% increase |
| Share of Electricity in World’s Total Final Consumption (TFC) | Increases from 20% in 2022 to 35% by 2050 | More than 50% |
| Electrifying Industrial Sector | 40-60% | 40-60% |
Massive Wind & Solar Expansion Dominating Power Generation
In India, to meet growing energy demands coal generation will increase by more than 90% by 2050. There will be a notable increase in bioenergy and geothermal power generation in upcoming years.
| Parameters | Current Trajectory | Net Zero |
| Total Power Generation | 8-fold increase around 23,000 TWh | 14-fold increase than 2022 40,000-45,000 TWh (from wind & solar majorly) |
| Coal-fired Generation | Falls by 40% by 2050 | Fall by 90% (Global share from 40% to 1%) |
| Gas Fired Generation (by 2050) | Increases by 40%, triples in Asia | Falls by more than 18%, nearing 5%. |
| Coal & Natural Gas (2050) | Close to a 3rd of global generation | More than double by around 3-quarters |
| Nuclear & Hydropower (2050) | Increases to reach 20% | Close to 20% of total power generation |
| Carbon Intensity of Power Generation | Declines by over 60% over the outlook | Almost complete elimination of fossil fuel emissions with CCUS (BECCS) results in the power sector. |
Cost Reduction due to Rapid Wind and Solar Expansion
There will be rapid advancements in solar and wind and solar technologies leading to cost reductions. It will also accelerate the establishment of new capacities. It is expected that China and other developed economies will contribute around 30-45% of the increase in new capacity during the 1st half of the outlook. Cost reductions will be more pronounced during the first 10–15 years of the outlook.
Causes – Upgrade and expansion in infrastructure, improved social acceptance, increased flexibility, and sped up planning and permission.
| Parameters | Current Trajectory | Net Zero |
| Wind & Solar Capacity (2050) | Around 8-fold increase | Increases by a factor of 14. |
| Total Buildout (wind and solar) | Close to a 3rd of total buildout, China accounting for an additional 35% | More than 60%, China’s share 25% |
| Installed wind & solar capacity (Annual additions) | 400-800 GW by 2035, about 1.5-3 times faster than the average pace of additions. | 400-800 GW by 2035 |
Increasing Power System Resilience to Renewables’ Variability
The power systems need to adapt to handle the growing unpredictability due to solar and wind power. Thus, it can ensure resiliency throughout the system. Wind and solar power are used accordingly in various markets. For example, in the EU and India, wind and solar power make up an energy mix of as much as 75-80% in Net Zero scenarios. There is less reliance on other low-carbon energy sources like nuclear power, hydropower, and CCUS in these regions.
Around 70-80% increase in battery storage capacity is taking place in emerging economies. These markets have abundant solar power and are using batteries in a better way to manage daily challenges.
| Parameters | Current Trajectory | Net Zero |
| Wind & Solar share in Global Power Generation (2050) | Little more than 10% in 2022 to between 50-70% by 2050. | From 10% in 2022 to 50-70% |
| Battery Storage Capacity (2050) | Increases to 2,200 GW | Increases to 4,200 GW |
4 factors determine the resilience of the power system against different types of fluctuations.
- Overuse of renewables’ capacity: The availability of wind and sunlight determines wind and solar power production. To meet approximately 70% of power demand throughout the year, extra wind and solar capacity is needed. This will ensure enough power generation even on unfavorable weather days.
- Flexibility: By modifying other forms of generation or demand power systems should be flexible. Using hydro-pumped storage, interconnectors, and other mechanisms to meet the demand.
- Dispatchable capacity: It is the contractually guaranteed generation capacity, which is provided when required. It includes battery storage, gas and coal stations, and interconnectors.
- Long-duration energy storage (LDES): This means reducing the impact caused by shortages of renewable energy resources at certain times of the year. Natural gas with CCS can help in addressing these situations. Low-carbon hydrogen with hydrogen storage can be an alternative source for LDES.
Low Carbon Hydrogen
This mainly includes low-carbon hydrogen and its production. Moreover, it is highly likely that the transition speed is affecting the adoption of low-carbon hydrogen in the market.
Speed of Energy Transition Defines the Role of Low-Carbon Hydrogen
Low-carbon hydrogen is an essential addition to the expanding electrification of the energy system. It is useful in challenging sectors like industries and transportation. Also, it plays an important role in long-term energy storage solutions in power markets, making it an indispensable resource.
The role of low-carbon hydrogen is most influential in Net Zero as policies support it. In the Current Trajectory, its role is more limited. There will be a rise in demand in 2nd half of the outlook, in Net Zero.
Causes – Primarily used in refining, methane & ammonia production, and in transportation (especially long-distance).
| Parameters | Current Trajectory | Net Zero |
| Usage of Low-Carbon Hydrogen (2050) | Increasing less than 20 Mtpa by 2035 and around 85 Mtpa by 2050 | Will grow to 90 Mtpa by 2035 and to 390 Mtpa by 2050. |
Effect on Production
It is produced from the combination of green and blue hydrogen. Initially, blue hydrogen is cheaper than green hydrogen but as production costs differ by region, the price increases. Access to natural gas, CO2 storage sites, renewable resources, and coal also varies. Moreover, transport costs are high.
It is estimated, by 2050, 60% of low-carbon hydrogen in Net Zero will be green hydrogen mainly produced in India and China. The rest will be blue hydrogen coming from natural gas, mostly produced in the US and Middle East.
Low Carbon Hydrogen Growth: Regional Markets and Global Seaborne Trade
The growth of low-carbon hydrogen is mainly focused on regional markets but it also includes some global seaborne trade. However, global trade of this hydrogen is increasing, especially in Singapore, South Korea, the EU, the US, Japan, Australia, and the Middle East.
It is estimated by 2035, the EU will need hydrogen derivates like methanol and ammonia for transporting marine and chemicals. Moreover, there will also be demands for synthetic jet fuel and hydrogen-based direct reduced iron to make low-carbon steel. Also, the increasing EU’s hydrogen demand will be met through seaborne imports.
Causes – Half of the demanded quantity is used in pure form as feedstock in refining, buildings, and transport. Cost and difficulty in transporting pure form of hydrogen, over longer distances.
| Parameters | Current Trajectory | Net Zero |
| Hydrogen Demand in the EU | Grows around 5-10 Mtpa by 2035 | Grows around 5-10 Mtpa by 2035 |
| Use of Low-Carbon Hydrogen by the EU (2050) | Increases by 15 Mtpa | Increases by 40 Mtpa |
| EU Hydrogen (pure form) Demand | Decrease by 40% | Reduces by 25% |
Carbon Mitigation and Removal
To increase the pace of transition, it is equally important to remove and reduce the carbon emissions from local to industrial scales.
Importance of CCUS for Deep Decarbonization
The usage of carbon capture and storage effectively supports deep decarbonization. It also helps to capture industrial process emissions, enables the removal of energy-based CO2, and reduces emissions from coal and natural gas.
| Parameters | Net Zero |
| Demand for CCUS | Increase to 1 GtCO2 by 2035 and to 7 GtCO2 by 2050 |
| CCUS with BECCS | 1 GtCO2 by 2050 |
| Direct air capture and storage (DACCS) | Extract around 1 GtCO2 by 2050 |
It is costly to add CCUS to industrial and energy processes but to achieve NET Zero, it is crucial. About 60% of total Net Zero CCUS deployment is in China and other developing countries. CCUS has the potential to achieve 40% capacity by 2050 through the functions of capturing industrial process emissions and enabling energy-based CDR. The cement industry’s captured emissions will account for around 15% of CCUS capacity by 2050.
In 2050, even with CCUS expansion, the use of coal and natural gas will decrease much more than the 2022 levels. The Outlook has not included the Natural climate solutions (NCS) which also focuses on carbon emission reduction.
Enablers
Without efficient investment in the renewable energy sector, a smooth and quick transition is not possible.
Investment in Renewable and Fossil Fuel Energy Sources
Substantial investments across various energy sources and vectors support the transition of the global energy system. Now, solar and wind energy sectors require more investments than ever. It is also necessary to achieve the goals of Net Zero and the Current Trajectory. However, the outlook does not emphasize stopping investments in the oil and gas sectors but the focus should be on natural gas due to its high consumption resilience.
| Parameters | Current Trajectory | Net Zero |
| Scale of Investment in Wind & Solar | A bit less but around $500 billion/year | Higher around $1 trillion/year |
| Cumulative Investment in Wind and Solar Capacity | $14 trillion, roughly spread between solar and wind. | $28 trillion, roughly spread between solar and wind. |
| Total Investment (%) Emerging Economies | 50% of the total | 70% of the total |
| Oil and Gas Investment | Remains close to recent levels | Falls sharply in final 20 years of outlook, due to shift to renewables. |
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Demand for Critical Minerals on Rise
With the increase in the energy system transition, there is an increase in the demand for critical minerals too.
With the rapid electrification of transport systems, rare earth or critical materials demand will also increase. Same for low-carbon energy, minerals like nickel, copper, and lithium will be required in high quantities. By 2050, it is estimated that around 80% of lithium demand will be from EVs, which was only 40% in 2022.
| Parameters | Current Trajectory | Net Zero |
| Growth in EVs (2050) | increases to 1.2 billion | Grows to 2.1 billion |
| Annual Battery Capacity Demand | Rise between 9-18 TWh | Rise between 9-18 TWh |
| Demand for Copper (2050) | Increases by 75% | Increases by 100% |
| Lithium Demand (2050) | Increases 8-fold | Increases 14-fold |
| Nickel Demand (2050) | Increase by 2-fold, mostly due to increased Li-ion batteries in EVs. | Increase by 3-fold |
It is thus important that critical minerals’ supply meets the demands without constraints on cost, pace, availability, or the nature of energy transition. The challenge of scaling up will be worsened for the countries to ensure geographically dispersed resources for supply security and sustainability oversight of mining activities.
Requirements to Accelerate Energy Transitions
- The faster shift to Net Zero in comparison to the Current Trajectory will be mainly due to increased decarbonization in the industrial and power sectors.
- Emerging economies decarbonizing their power sector rapidly.
- Industries tend to decarbonize faster in Net Zero in comparison to Current Trajectory. This is due to lower carbon electricity and greater improvements in efficiency.
- Higher electrification of road transport accounts for faster decarbonization in the transport sector in Net Zero than the Current Trajectory.
- In Net Zero, buildings (construction industry) decarbonize rapidly than the Current Trajectory. This is highly supported by accelerating energy efficiency, conservation, and lower-carbon electricity.
Source: bp Energy Outlook 2024
